Why Every Wealth Plan Needs an Estate Plan
Insights Why Every Wealth Plan Needs an Estate Plan Date: Nov 2025 What is Estate Planning? Prior to exploring estate planning, it’s essential to grasp what comprises your “estate”. Your estate encompasses all your assets and possessions, including real estate, vehicles, business interests, bank accounts, investments, retirement funds, life insurance policies, and even personal items such as jewellery, furniture, art, collectables and household fixtures. Estate planning is the deliberate and systematic process of developing a comprehensive strategy to manage and distribute your assets upon your passing. It enables you to clearly designate beneficiaries for your property, appoint trusted individuals such as executors, trustees, or guardians to handle your financial and personal affairs, and establish legal mechanisms through wills, trusts, powers of attorney and healthcare directives. A well-executed estate plan empowers you to make choices about the future and the future of loved ones without compromising on ownership and control. Estate Planning is not just about Wills An effective estate plan goes beyond merely dictating how your assets will be distributed after death; it establishes a roadmap for how your affairs will be managed in case you become incapacitated, ensures your loved ones are provided for after your passing and minimizes legal complications, taxes efficiency and stress for your family. Through careful planning, you gain control and therefore peace of mind. In contrast, absence of an estate plan often results in protracted legal disputes, delays, and conflicts. Planning safeguards not only your wealth but also your loved ones’ financial security and emotional well-being. Key Components of an Estate Plan: Succession through Wills and Trusts:A Trust is a legal arrangement where a settlor transfers assets to a trustee for the benefit of designated beneficiaries. Trusts may be established during one’s lifetime or through testamentary trusts after death, offering advantages such as significant control, tax efficiencies, asset protection and opportunities for wealth creation. A Will, on the other hand, sets forth how your estate is to be distributed after your lifetime. Planning through a Family Constitution:Legacy and estate planning for future generations involves more than just financial considerations; they embody your values, vision and objectives. This ensures your family remains financially stable and your assets transfer seamlessly. As intergenerational wealth transfer has gained importance, understanding how to maintain wealth has shifted from being an option to a necessity. Family Constitutions (or Family Charters) serve as guiding frameworks in this regard. Powers of Attorney and Advance Directives:While durable Powers of Attorney do not endure in India, specific or general powers of Attorney may be used to ease execution and administration of assets during your lifetime. Advance directives are legal documents that specify your medical care preferences should you become incapacitated and unable to make decisions yourself. Common Myths among High-Net-worth Individuals: “A simple Will is sufficient”: While wills constitute a fundamental component of estate planning, they are insufficient for complex HNI estates involving family businesses, cross-border assets, and specific governance needs. Trusts, family constitutions and other sophisticated legal structures are often necessary to ensure tax efficiency, asset protection and clear governance and avoidance of probate. “Succession planning means I have to give up control now”: Many founders hesitate to engage in succession planning due to perceptions of an abrupt exit or forfeiture of authority. Succession can be a gradual process, with options such as advisory or board roles allowing a phased transition of ownership and management. “Succession planning concerns only assets and taxes”: Effective succession planning goes beyond the mere transfer of financial wealth and assets. It involves the transfer of family values, governance structures, and preparing successors for the responsibilities associated with stewardship of family wealth. “My family will remain united after my death”: HNIs often assume that harmonious relationships during their lifetime will persist after their departure. In the absence of a clear, legally grounded, and well-communicated plan, even minor ambiguities in wealth or business distribution can lead to significant conflict and family disintegration. Conclusion Effective estate planning facilitates the efficient transfer of wealth in alignment with one’s intentions, while minimizing legal and tax friction. It forms a critical part of a long-term financial strategy, providing structure, continuity, and control over asset distribution. At Privus Advisors, we collaborate with leading law firms and estate specialists to help clients design and implement comprehensive estate plans. This integrated approach ensures that both financial and legal aspects are aligned – delivering clarity, compliance, and confidence in every decision. DISCLAIMER: This report/presentation is intended solely for the personal and private use of the recipient and is for private circulation only. It must not be published, reproduced, distributed, or disclosed, in whole or in part, to any other person or entity without prior written consent. This report/presentation has been prepared by ANB Legal on behalf of Privus Advisors (the “Firm”). The information or opinions expressed are for general information purpose and do not constitute legal advice, an offer, or an invitation to make an offer to buy or sell any financial product, service, or security, or any derivative thereof. Any information relating to taxation is based on publicly available sources and may be subject to change. Recipients are advised to consult with qualified professionals regarding applicable foreign exchange regulations, taxation, financial advice, and estate or succession planning considerations in India and/or abroad, as relevant. All investments are subject to market risks; please read all related documents carefully before investing. Privus Advisors is registered with SEBI as a non-individual Investment Adviser (Reg. No. INA000019752) and holds BASL Membership No. 2230. Registration with SEBI, membership of BASL, or certification by the National Institute of Securities Markets (NISM) does not imply performance assurance or guarantee of returns to investors.
Understanding Economic Cycles: Right Sectors at the Right Time
Insights Understanding Economic Cycles: Right Sectors at the Right Time Date: Nov 2025 Markets, much like tides, moves in cycles. Periods of growth are followed by slowdowns, which then make way for recovery and renewed expansion. These recurring phases may vary in duration and magnitude, but the underlying rhythm remains consistent. Understanding them helps investors make informed, strategic decisions instead of reacting emotionally to market noise. At Privus Advisors, we view each stage not as a threat, but as an opportunity to realign portfolios toward durable businesses that can compound value through varying environments. Recovery – Emerging from the Downturn The recovery phase marks the turning point after a recession or slowdown. Monetary and fiscal support typically begin to take effect, interest rates remain low, credit flow revives, and corporate sentiment improves. Consumers cautiously start spending again, and businesses resume investments in capacity and hiring. Early signs of demand return, confidence rebuilds.This is often the most rewarding stage for those who identify strong cyclical businesses with sound balance sheets. Entering quality names early in this phase allows investors to ride the upturn as earnings momentum accelerates. Banks and NBFCs benefit first as credit demand revives. Consumer Discretionary (Auto) & Industrials such as capital goods, and cement companies gain from renewed infrastructure and manufacturing activity. Early signs of life also appear in technology, logistics, engineering. Expansion – Confidence and Broad-Based Growth During expansion, growth becomes self-sustaining. Employment strengthens, corporate earnings improve, and consumer confidence grows. Governments may step back from stimulus, allowing private investment to take the lead. Inflation begins to rise but remains manageable and global capital flows tend to be positive. Diversified portfolios tend to perform best in this phase. Investors should maintain exposure to growth-oriented equities and selectively increase allocations to mid-caps poised for expansion.Technology and industrials lead as productivity gains and innovation drive corporate performance. Consumer discretionary sectors such as retail, travel, and luxury goods thrive as household incomes expand. Real estate, construction, and infrastructure sectors also witness strong traction, driven by both public and private investment. Focus on quality growth companies expanding revenues with sustainable margins and low leverage. Peak – Euphoria and Overvaluation As the economy reaches its peak, optimism turns euphoric. Valuations become stretched, and speculative behaviour often surfaces. Capacity utilization reaches its limit, input costs rise, and central banks begin tightening liquidity to control inflation. Corporate margins may start to compress despite strong demand. This is a time to gradually reduce exposure to highly cyclical or overvalued sectors and rotate towards defensives. Preserving capital becomes as important as generating returns.Defensive sectors such as FMCG, healthcare, and utilities typically outperform as their earnings remain stable regardless of the cycle. IT services and export-driven businesses may hold up as domestic growth slows but global demand remains resilient. Contraction – Slowdown and Capital Preservation The contraction phase reflects a cooling economy. Unemployment rises, demand weakens, borrowing slows, and corporate profits decline. Liquidity tightens, risk aversion rises, and markets correct. Investors shift toward safety and quality. Yet, it’s also a period when future opportunities begin to form beneath the surface. Capital preservation is the focus. However, disciplined investors use corrections to accumulate fundamentally strong businesses at reasonable valuations, laying the groundwork for the next recovery.Healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and consumer staples remain resilient due to consistent demand. Gold, sovereign bonds, and high-quality fixed-income instruments act as effective hedges. Asset management, insurance, and select export-oriented industries can also provide stability during downturns. Conclusion Markets and economies will always move in cycles but thoughtful portfolios don’t chase them; they adapt. By understanding where we are in the cycle, investors can align their capital with the sectors best positioned for each phase while maintaining diversification and discipline. The key lies in balance: owning businesses that can weather contractions yet thrive during expansions. At Privus Advisors, we help clients build portfolios that aren’t built for one cycle but for every cycle. DISCLAIMER: This report/presentation is intended for the personal and private use of the recipient and is for private circulation only. It is not to be published, reproduced, distributed, or disclosed, whether wholly or in part, to any other person or entity without prior written consent. The report/presentation has been prepared by Privus Advisors (Firm) based on the information available in public domain & other external sources which are beyond Privus’ control and may also include the Firm’s personal views. Though the recipient recognizes such information to be generally reliable, the recipient acknowledges that inaccuracies may occur & that the Firm does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. Neither does the information nor any opinion expressed constitute a legal opinion or an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial or other products / services or securities or any kind of derivatives related to such securities. Any information contained herein relating to taxation is based on the information available in the public domain that may be subject to change. Investors/Clients should refer to relevant foreign exchange regulations / taxation / financial advice as applicable in India and/or abroad about the appropriateness and relevance / impact of the views or suggestions expressed herein, related to any Investment/Estate Planning / Succession Planning. All investments are subject to market risks, read all related documents carefully before investing. The Firm is registered with SEBI as a non-individual RIA bearing Reg. No. INA000019752 & BSEASL membership No. 2230. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL and certification of National Institute of Securities Markets (NISM) in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Before You Invest: The Most Important Checks Every Investor Should Make
Insights Before You Invest: The Most Important Checks Every Investor Should Make Date: Nov 2025 When it comes to investing, most people focus on returns. But in reality, returns are just the outcome, not the starting point. The real art of investing lies in assessing what you’re buying, why you’re buying it, and how it fits into your financial journey. At Privus, we often remind investors: “A good investment isn’t just one that grows, it’s one you can live with.” Here are the most important checks to make before putting money into any investment product. Liquidity – The First Line of Safety Liquidity simply means how quickly and easily you can access your money when needed, without a significant loss of value. Why does it matter? Emergencies, opportunities, or life goals don’t always wait for lock-in periods to end. Does the product have an exit option, and what are the penalties? How is liquidity in stressed markets (for instance, during 2020’s lockdown phase)? Is there a secondary market (especially in case of bonds) or a buyback clause? Many investors overlook liquidity while chasing yield, only to realise later that their “high return” product locks them in for years. In our advisory experience, liquidity deserves top priority – above even returns. Simplicity – If You Don’t Understand It, Don’t Buy It Complexity often hides costs, risks, or unrealistic assumptions. The more layers a product has, the harder it becomes to judge performance or make timely exit decisions. Complicated structures such as ULIPs, structured notes, hybrid debentures can behave unpredictably in different market cycles. Can you explain the product in one or two sentences? Do you clearly understand how returns are generated and what risks could derail them? Are the costs and tax implications transparent? A simple mutual fund or ETF is often far more effective than an exotic structure with opaque payoffs. At Privus, we prefer products that are transparent, cost-efficient, and easy to track. Costs – What You Don’t See Can Hurt You Returns are gross. What matters is what you keep. Hidden fees, trail commissions, or surrender charges can silently erode returns. Evaluate all costs such as entry and exit loads, annual management or distribution fees, expense ratios in mutual funds and embedded costs in insurance-linked products. Even a 1% annual difference in cost can compound into a meaningful gap over a decade. Risk – Focus on Behaviour, Not Just Numbers Every product carries risk such as market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, or even liquidity risk. But risk isn’t just about volatility, it is about whether you can stay invested through it. Understand fully the risk you are exposed to by investing in the product. What could go wrong, and how much can it impact value? Does the product align with your risk tolerance and holding period? Privus often advises clients to build portfolios where risk is measured not by short-term fluctuation, but by the ability to stay the course. Purpose – Does It Fit Your Plan? Every investment must serve a role in growth, stability, income, or liquidity. A good product isn’t good in isolation; it’s good when it fits your financial strategy. Before investing, ask does this align with my time horizon? Does it complement or duplicate existing holdings? Is it part of a well thought out asset allocation plan? Without clarity of purpose, even the best product can end up being a mismatch. Tax Efficiency – Don’t Let Taxes Eat into Returns A product’s post-tax return is what truly matters. Tax treatment varies across asset classes, and some instruments lose their appeal once you factor in taxation. Check how the gains would be taxed? Dividend taxation and indexation benefits (if any). The idea is not to avoid taxes, but to invest smartly with awareness of the tax impact. When we evaluate any investment at Privus Advisors, our framework follows this simple order of priority:Liquidity → Simplicity → Cost → Risk → Purpose → Taxation → Return. Because good investing isn’t about finding the highest return, it’s about building a portfolio you can rely on through every market cycle. DISCLAIMER: This report/presentation is intended for the personal and private use of the recipient and is for private circulation only. It is not to be published, reproduced, distributed, or disclosed, whether wholly or in part, to any other person or entity without prior written consent. The report/presentation has been prepared by Privus Advisors (Firm) based on the information available in public domain & other external sources which are beyond Privus’ control and may also include the Firm’s personal views. Though the recipient recognizes such information to be generally reliable, the recipient acknowledges that inaccuracies may occur & that the Firm does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. Neither does the information nor any opinion expressed constitute a legal opinion or an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial or other products / services or securities or any kind of derivatives related to such securities. Any information contained herein relating to taxation is based on the information available in the public domain that may be subject to change. Investors/Clients should refer to relevant foreign exchange regulations / taxation / financial advice as applicable in India and/or abroad about the appropriateness and relevance / impact of the views or suggestions expressed herein, related to any Investment/Estate Planning / Succession Planning. All investments are subject to market risks, read all related documents carefully before investing. The Firm is registered with SEBI as a non-individual RIA bearing Reg. No. INA000019752 & BSEASL membership No. 2230. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL and certification of National Institute of Securities Markets (NISM) in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
More isn’t better: The Real Meaning of Diversification
Insights More isn’t better: The Real Meaning of Diversification Date: Oct 2025 In today’s fast-paced financial landscape, High Net-Worth Individuals (HNIs) are constantly bombarded with product pitches and market “opportunities”. The fact is stark: the more noise you follow, the more complicated and vulnerable your portfolio is. At Privus, we believe that true strength lies in simplicity. A focused set of purposeful investments, aligned with long-term goals, forms the cornerstone of both wealth preservation and sustainable growth. Diversification is frequently misunderstood. It is not about adding more products or chasing every opportunity, it is about carefully combining assets that behave differently under varying market conditions. To illustrate, we analysed 3-year rolling returns over 20 years across Indian equities (NIFTY 50 TRI), US Equities (S&P 500 TRI), Gold, and 10-year Indian Government Bonds (G-Sec). Source: Investing.com & NSE (Data as on 15th September 2025)The correlation data highlights meaningful diversification benefits across asset classes. Gold (INR) continues to act as a hedge, with negative correlations to both S&P 500 (–40%) and S&P 500 TRI (INR) (–44%), highlighting its value during global equity drawdowns as well as INR weakness. NIFTY’s correlation with S&P 500 is modest at 25%, offering partial growth overlap but with diversification potential, while its link with S&P 500 TRI (INR) is even lower at –7%, reflecting the added role of currency. 10Y G-Secs remain broadly uncorrelated (2% to 11%) with equities and gold, underscoring their stabilizing role. As expected, S&P 500 and S&P 500 TRI (INR) are tightly aligned (91%), but currency translation meaningfully changes correlations for Indian investors. Together, this matrix highlights equities as compounding engines, gold as a hedge across both equity and currency risk, and bonds as portfolio anchors. EQUITIES vs GOLD Source: Investing.com & NSE (Data as on 15th September 2025)The first chart compares NIFTY 50 and S&P 500, both equities but driven by different market cycles. The S&P 500 surged during the 2020–21 tech-led rally, while NIFTY picked up momentum in 2023–24 on strong domestic sentiment. With a moderate correlation of 25%, these two markets offer diversification benefits capturing global growth opportunities while reducing concentration risk.At Privus, diversification is not about foreign exposure for its own sake, but about strategically allocating to non-overlapping sources of return.The second chart shows Gold versus the S&P 500, where the negative correlation of –40% (–44% in INR terms) highlights their contrasting behaviour. While both can rise in short speculative bursts, gold consistently plays its role as a hedge, offsetting equity volatility and providing protection against both market drawdowns and INR depreciation. BOND vs GOLD vs NIFTY Source: Investing.com & NSE (Data as on 15th September 2025) While both Gold and bonds are considered “safe” assets, their behaviour differs significantly. Gold can be volatile and spike during global crises, while 10-year G-Secs offer slow but steady returns that are influenced by interest rate changes. Their correlation (6%) suggests that both can fortify the defensive aspect of a portfolio. This disparity is more apparent when compared with equities such as NIFTY, which respond rapidly to market fluctuations. At times of equity falling, G-Secs are normally stable, providing capital protection and stable returns. This trio of equity, gold, and bonds offers a strong blend of growth, protection, and capital preservation. CONCLUSION: These relationships underscore a simple truth: no single asset thrives in every market cycle. Equities drive long-term wealth creation, gold protects during systemic stress, and bonds anchor portfolios with stability and income. Diversification, when built carefully across uncorrelated or negatively correlated assets, reduces the need for projection and increases the chances of successful outcomes. For our clients, this means portfolios built to endure, not react.In conclusion, real diversification isn’t having a bunch of products, but it’s the right mix with purpose. At Privus, we don’t sell products or chase trends. We craft strategies based on your goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Fewer, simpler investments, chosen deliberately and monitored with discipline, are the best platform for long-term success. If you seek focus, resilience, and control in your portfolio, we invite you to experience the Privus approach. DISCLAIMER: This report/presentation is intended for the personal and private use of the recipient and is for private circulation only. It is not to be published, reproduced, distributed, or disclosed, whether wholly or in part, to any other person or entity without prior written consent. The report/presentation has been prepared by Privus Advisors (Firm) based on the information available in public domain & other external sources which are beyond Privus’ control and may also include the Firm’s personal views. Though the recipient recognizes such information to be generally reliable, the recipient acknowledges that inaccuracies may occur & that the Firm does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. Neither does the information nor any opinion expressed constitute a legal opinion or an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial or other products / services or securities or any kind of derivatives related to such securities. Any information contained herein relating to taxation is based on the information available in the public domain that may be subject to change. Investors/Clients should refer to relevant foreign exchange regulations / taxation / financial advice as applicable in India and/or abroad about the appropriateness and relevance / impact of the views or suggestions expressed herein, related to any Investment/Estate Planning / Succession Planning. All investments are subject to market risks, read all related documents carefully before investing. The Firm is registered with SEBI as a non-individual RIA bearing Reg. No. INA000019752 & BSEASL membership No. 2230. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL and certification of National Institute of Securities Markets (NISM) in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Repay or Invest? The Math Behind Smarter Wealth Decisions
Insights Repay or Invest? The Math Behind Smarter Wealth Decisions Date: Oct 2025 For many successful professionals and business owners, the urge to prepay a home loan stems from financial discipline and the comfort of being debt-free. While this mindset is understandable, it is often not the most efficient use of capital from a wealth management perspective. At current interest rates, the numbers clearly favour maintaining the home loan and deploying surplus funds into equity markets instead. Here’s why: Your loan is structured efficiently Home loans in India run on a reducing balance. With each EMI, the principal shrinks, and interest is charged only on the outstanding balance. This ensures that the actual interest outgo is far lower than it appears when you look at the full tenure cost. In effect, you are paying interest on a diminishing base. However, when the amount is invested, it compounds from Day 1, creating wealth that grows much faster than the savings achieved by prepaying. In short, the gains from investing outweigh the savings from loan repayment. Chart below illustrates the incremental return one could make by investing the amount in an investment vehicle generating a similar return as the loan. Amount considered is INR 2.0 Cr and rate of interest at 8% throughout the tenure. As seen above, while one pays a total interest of INR 91 Lakh on a 10-year loan, the potential gains from investing the loan amount in an asset earning similar to the loan rate would be INR 2.31 Cr, generating a net gain of INR 1.4 Cr. As tenure increases, the earnings increase substantially over interest paid on the loan. Selecting the right investment could boost gains With home loan rates between 7-8%, equity portfolios over the long term can reasonably be expected to generate 12% or more. In 10 years the incremental over loan interest increases by more than 2x. Strategic timing around interest rate cycles Equities tend to thrive when interest rates are low, as they are today (Mentioned in detail in our blog on the Inverse relationship between Nifty 50 PE and Repo rate). Over time, when interest rates rise and peak, equities often face valuation pressures. That is the point when it makes sense to reassess and consider prepaying part of the loan. Until then, your capital is better utilized in markets rather than locked away in an illiquid loan prepayment. Rolling return analysis shows that as the holding period increases from 1 to 3 & 5 years, volatility in returns tends to reduce. Those that remain invested through market cycles will benefit from the long-term upward trend of the market and are less likely to be negatively impacted by temporary downturns Liquidity and flexibility matter more than zero debt Repaying your loan early locks up capital. Keeping the loan while investing surplus funds allows you to stay liquid, diversified, and compounding. For high-net-worth individuals, where EMIs do not impact lifestyle, this approach maintains financial flexibility while accelerating wealth creation. For clients whose cash flows are strong and steady, repaying a home loan today is a sub-optimal allocation of capital. When interest rates are low, the smarter strategy is to continue servicing the loan, while allowing your surplus funds to work harder in equities. Later, as interest rates climb, we can always pivot and consider partial repayment. Wealth creation is not about eliminating liabilities at the earliest opportunity – it’s about making every rupee work harder. And in the current environment, the math is unambiguous: let your loan run and let your capital compound. Ultimately, the right decision will also depend on your personal goals, risk appetite, and financial situation. DISCLAIMER: This report/presentation is intended for the personal and private use of the recipient and is for private circulation only. It is not to be published, reproduced, distributed, or disclosed, whether wholly or in part, to any other person or entity without prior written consent. The report/presentation has been prepared by Privus Advisors (Firm) based on the information available in public domain & other external sources which are beyond Privus’ control and may also include the Firm’s personal views. Though the recipient recognizes such information to be generally reliable, the recipient acknowledges that inaccuracies may occur & that the Firm does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. Neither does the information nor any opinion expressed constitute a legal opinion or an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial or other products / services or securities or any kind of derivatives related to such securities. Any information contained herein relating to taxation is based on the information available in the public domain that may be subject to change. Investors/Clients should refer to relevant foreign exchange regulations / taxation / financial advice as applicable in India and/or abroad about the appropriateness and relevance / impact of the views or suggestions expressed herein, related to any Investment/Estate Planning / Succession Planning. All investments are subject to market risks, read all related documents carefully before investing. The Firm is registered with SEBI as a non-individual RIA bearing Reg. No. INA000019752 & BSEASL membership No. 2230. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL and certification of National Institute of Securities Markets (NISM) in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Rolling Returns: A Smarter Way to analyse Investments
Insights Rolling Returns: A Smarter Way to analyse Investments Date: Aug 2025 In investment analysis, numbers can be deceptively flattering. A fund showing 20% gains over the past year might appear impressive at first glance, but without understanding how those returns were generated, the picture remains incomplete. Were the gains consistent across the year, or did they come from a brief market upswing that masked periods of underperformance? To answer such questions, investors need a metric that looks beyond point-to-point snapshots and that’s where rolling returns become indispensable. What Are Rolling Returns? Rolling returns are the annualized average returns of an investment calculated over overlapping periods of a specific timeframe. Unlike traditional point-to-point returns that only consider two fixed dates, rolling returns provide a continuous, dynamic view of performance by “rolling” the observation window forward at regular intervals. Think of it as taking multiple snapshots of your investment’s performance over time, rather than relying on a single photograph. If you want to assess a fund’s 3-year performance over a 10-year period, rolling returns would calculate the 3-year return for every single day within that decade giving you around 3,664 data points instead of just one. Source: NSE (Data as on 10th August 2025) The chart above illustrates Nifty’s 3-year holding period returns for 10 years, calculated daily. First return calculated from 1st Mar 2015 to 1st Mar 2018, second from 2nd Mar 2015 to 2nd Mar 2018 and so on till the last return calculated from 1st Mar 2022 till 1st Mar 2025. An investment made on 2nd March 2020 held for three years delivered a CAGR of 15.88%, while an investment made just 12 days later, on 14th March 2020, has delivered 19.63%. A new investor evaluating the index on these two dates in 2023 would see a 4% difference in annualized returns, purely due to the choice of start and end dates. This demonstrates how point-to-point analysis can be misleading or incomplete. Rolling returns address this limitation by examining returns across every possible cycle for the holding period, providing a truer picture of consistency. The average of the annualized returns (rolling return), for 3-year holding period, stands at 13.3% – a far more reliable benchmark for investor expectation than isolated outcomes. At Privus Advisors, we emphasize rolling returns as a critical lens for evaluating investments. Investors who incorporate this metric are better equipped to set realistic expectations, select funds aligned with their risk tolerance, and stay disciplined through market volatility.Next time you review a fund, look beyond “what was the return?” and ask, “what do the rolling returns reveal?” That shift can make all the difference in building portfolios aligned with long-term goals. DISCLAIMER: This report/presentation is intended for the personal and private use of the recipient and is for private circulation only. It is not to be published, reproduced, distributed, or disclosed, whether wholly or in part, to any other person or entity without prior written consent. The report/presentation has been prepared by Privus Advisors (Firm) based on the information available in public domain & other external sources which are beyond Privus’ control and may also include the Firm’s personal views. Though the recipient recognizes such information to be generally reliable, the recipient acknowledges that inaccuracies may occur & that the Firm does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. Neither does the information nor any opinion expressed constitute a legal opinion or an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial or other products / services or securities or any kind of derivatives related to such securities. Any information contained herein relating to taxation is based on the information available in the public domain that may be subject to change. Investors/Clients should refer to relevant foreign exchange regulations / taxation / financial advice as applicable in India and/or abroad about the appropriateness and relevance / impact of the views or suggestions expressed herein, related to any Investment/Estate Planning / Succession Planning. All investments are subject to market risks, read all related documents carefully before investing. The Firm is registered with SEBI as a non-individual RIA bearing Reg. No. INA000019752 & BSEASL membership No. 2230. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL and certification of National Institute of Securities Markets (NISM) in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Index Investing – Do You Still Need an Advisor
Insights Index Investing – Do You Still Need an Advisor? Date: Sep 2025 Index funds have transformed the investment landscape. They are low-cost, diversified, transparent, and designed to match the performance of a market index making them an attractive choice for both new and seasoned investors. With the rise of digital platforms, anyone can access index products with a few clicks. This has led to a common question: “If I’m investing in index funds, do I really need an advisor?”Our answer: Absolutely, especially if you want your portfolio to work in harmony with your personal goals, life stage, and risk profile. Index Investing: Straightforward but Strategy-Driven An index fund’s objective is straightforward: track an index like the NIFTY 50 or the S&P 500. But successful investing isn’t just about buying a product; it’s about constructing and maintaining a plan. How much of your portfolio should be in equity index funds versus bonds, gold, or alternative assets? This depends on your time horizon, cash flow needs, and future liabilities. For high-net-worth individuals, index investing must be woven into a strategy that considers estate planning, tax optimisation, and intergenerational wealth transfer. Without guidance, investors risk building an index portfolio that’s technically diversified but misaligned with their financial blueprint. Valuations Matter even for Passive Investors Many assume index investing means “set it and forget it.” But the timing and valuation of your entry points can have a significant impact on long-term returns. Buying into an index at stretched valuations (e.g., high P/E levels) has historically led to lower forward returns over the next 3–5 years. Advisors can provide discipline helping you avoid emotionally driven lump-sum investments at market peaks and instead use strategies like staggered entries or rebalancing. After analysing daily 3-year rolling returns taking index data since 1996, we observed that the average 3-year return achieved by Nifty 50 Index is 12%. However, there is approximately a 34% probability of making greater than 15% when entering the market at favourable valuations. Additionally, investors can achieve these returns when buying the index at an average PE of around 19x. While there is the advantage of higher returns, probability of negative returns declines from 9% to around 1%. Source: NSE (Data as on 10th August 2025) (Data Since 2003) (Sample Size: 8623, Frequency: 3 years daily rolling returns)* The graph 3-year returns are calculated since 2002 as PE data for Nifty 50 is only available since 1st January 1999 The “Behaviour Gap” That Costs Investors Millions Over the past 20 years, the NIFTY 50 has grown at nearly 13% per year. However, there are investors that achieved returns around 8–9%. Not because the index failed – but because investors buy high, sell low, and let emotions drive decisions. Market crashes trigger panic-selling; bull runs tempt overconfidence. And this happens just as easily in index funds as in stock-picking. An advisor isn’t just there to pick funds – they’re there to stop you from becoming the biggest threat to your own portfolio. Advisors serve as a behavioural anchor, keeping clients committed to their plan during volatility. A Few Other Advantages Index funds offer diversification and tax efficiency, but hidden sector concentrations and market downturns can increase risks. Advisors help investors balance concentration risk, align asset allocation with their risk profile and time horizon, and ensure sufficient liquidity to avoid forced selling. They also optimise tax strategies like capital gains harvesting and withdrawal sequencing, especially for long-term and high-net-worth investors. By continuously monitoring life changes, market shifts, and tax rules, advisors keep index-based portfolios aligned with financial goals. At Privus Advisors, we combine the efficiency of index products with disciplined strategy, valuation insight, and bespoke planning and transforming a “good” investment approach into a great wealth-building journey. Index funds are a great tool – but without a plan, they’re just a tool. We make them part of a strategy. DISCLAIMER: This report/presentation is intended for the personal and private use of the recipient and is for private circulation only. It is not to be published, reproduced, distributed, or disclosed, whether wholly or in part, to any other person or entity without prior written consent. The report/presentation has been prepared by Privus Advisors (Firm) based on the information available in public domain & other external sources which are beyond Privus’ control and may also include the Firm’s personal views. Though the recipient recognizes such information to be generally reliable, the recipient acknowledges that inaccuracies may occur & that the Firm does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. Neither does the information nor any opinion expressed constitute a legal opinion or an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial or other products / services or securities or any kind of derivatives related to such securities. Any information contained herein relating to taxation is based on the information available in the public domain that may be subject to change. Investors/Clients should refer to relevant foreign exchange regulations / taxation / financial advice as applicable in India and/or abroad about the appropriateness and relevance / impact of the views or suggestions expressed herein, related to any Investment/Estate Planning / Succession Planning. All investments are subject to market risks, read all related documents carefully before investing. The Firm is registered with SEBI as a non-individual RIA bearing Reg. No. INA000019752 & BSEASL membership No. 2230. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL and certification of National Institute of Securities Markets (NISM) in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Metals or Markets
Insights Metals or Markets : What’s Truly Worth Investing In? Date: July 2025 Investors are constantly on the hunt for the best long-term asset to preserve wealth, beat inflation, and ride through market storms. Among the many options, precious metals like gold and silver are often compared with a country’s equity benchmark like the Nifty 50 Total Returns Index (TRI). But when it comes to actual performance, which of these performs better over time? Let us look at a comparative analysis spanning multiple decades to find out which asset truly stands out. In investing, it’s important to know how different asset classes perform compared to each other when making decisions. In this post, we will dive into visual analysis of the 3-year rolling returns of silver, gold, and Indian equity indices, specifically the Nifty 50 TR, from early 2003 to 2025. 1. GOLD VS SILVER Source: Gold.org, Investing.com as on 30th June 2025 (Data Since 2000) This chart presents the 3-year rolling returns of silver and gold, highlighting how they differ in their behaviour over time. Silver displays significantly higher volatility, with returns oscillating between +60% and -30%, whereas gold moves within a band of +30% to -10%. Regardless of the differences in volatility, the two assets are strongly correlated, having a correlation coefficient of 0.88, suggesting they generally move in tandem. During crisis periods, like the post-2008 recovery and the 2020 pandemic shock, both metals experienced significant gains of about 60% for silver and 30% for gold, strengthening their status as safe-haven assets during financial instability. Nonetheless, these patterns of returns vary in character. Gold provides more stable and uniform returns, i.e., follows a more predictable and consistent path, whereas silver shows peaks and troughs, a manifestation of its more volatile and speculative nature. This is supported by their respective standard deviations of 0.16 for silver and 0.103 for gold, indicating that silver deviates more significantly from its average return. There’s also a noticeable lag and amplification effect: silver responds to gold but in an amplified way where it rises quickly in uptrends and more precipitously in downturns. Implications: From an investment perspective, gold emerges as a more conservative long-term asset holding for conservative portfolios. Silver, though riskier, can deliver superior returns during bullish phases, making it attractive for tactical or short- to medium-term holding. Both assets, however, tend to perform well in times of macroeconomic uncertainty, and given silver’s increased volatility, timing the entry and exit becomes particularly sensitive. 2. GOLD VS NIFTY Source: Gold.org, Niftyindices.com as on 30th June 2025 (Data Since 2000) This chart compares gold with the Indian equity benchmark Nifty 50 Total Returns Index (TR), and what one sees are different performance trends. During times of crises such as 2008 and 2020, gold rose sharply, reflecting its traditional role as a crisis hedge. While Nifty returns fell in 2008 and 2020 but came back quite strongly afterwards. On longer terms, NIFTY has provided higher potential for returns with stronger cycles, whereas gold has provided lesser but steadier returns, especially during turbulent global periods. Both asset classes tend to move inversely, reflecting their low correlation. Implications: The chart highlights the complementary nature of gold and equities in a portfolio. While the NIFTY 50 has provided better long-term returns, it also has the potential to suffer big drawdowns in times of crisis like 2008 and 2020. Gold has a tendency to perform well during times of economic uncertainty and is a good hedge when equity markets come under pressure. This inverse relationship reflects their low correlation, underscoring the merit of diversification. By pairing assets such as NIFTY and gold, investors can minimize overall portfolio volatility, hedge against market declines, and add stability to long-term returns. 3. SILVER VS GOLD VS NIFTY Source: Gold.org, Investing.com, Niftyindices.com as on 30th June 2025 (Data Since 2000) The comparison highlights the unique behaviour of gold, silver, and the Nifty 50 TR across different market cycles. Gold shows relative steadiness with moderate and consistent returns irrespective of overall market conditions. Silver, however, continues to be extremely volatile, soaring by up to 60% before plummeting, indicating its volatile nature. The Nifty 50 TR, meanwhile, has depicted robust and sustained outperformance, more so after 2014, in sync with the recovery of India’s economy as well as corporate earnings. Regarding correlations, gold and Nifty 50 TR have a very weak correlation (0.04), which further supports gold as a non-correlated, defensive asset. Silver has a weaker but slightly higher correlation with the index at 0.32. These numbers indicate that equities reflect market sentiment and economic growth, but precious metals, especially gold, act more as safe-haven assets in times of doubt or volatility. CONCLUSION Silver, as much as it can increase returns, is not only demanding in terms of risk management because it is highly volatile but also deserves tactical allocation. Gold, however, is the best hedge during times of geopolitical and economic turmoil, as it brings stability when markets are volatile. Nifty 50 TR is the best core holding, the one that brings somewhat stable and steady long-term growth. Examining 3-year rolling returns offers further analysis by reducing near-term volatility, uncovering cycle trends, and assisting with effective entry and exit points for all asset classes. DISCLAIMER: This report/presentation is intended for the personal and private use of the recipient and is for private circulation only. It is not to be published, reproduced, distributed, or disclosed, whether wholly or in part, to any other person or entity without prior written consent. The report/presentation has been prepared by Privus Advisors (Firm) based on the information available in public domain & other external sources which are beyond Privus’ control and may also include the Firm’s personal views. Though the recipient recognizes such information to be generally reliable, the recipient acknowledges that inaccuracies may occur & that the Firm does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. Neither does the information nor any opinion expressed constitute a legal opinion or an offer, or an invitation to
The Inverse Relationship Between Repo Rate & Nifty PE
Insights The Inverse Relationship Between Repo Rate & Nifty PE Date: June 2025 In the era of investing, understanding the interplay between macroeconomic indicators and market valuations can offer valuable insights. One notable relationship is between the Nifty 50 Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) repo rate. A correlation of -0.583 between these two metrics suggests a moderate strong inverse relationship – meaning that when the repo rate declines, the Nifty 50 PE ratio tends to rise, and vice versa. Understanding this pattern can assist investors in making more informed choices regarding equity markets. Why Does This Relationship Exist? The repo rate is the rate at which the RBI lends money to commercial banks. It serves as a vital instrument for controlling inflation and managing liquidity in the economy. Over the past two decades, the repo rate has ranged between 9% and 4%, reflecting the RBI’s changing stance based on economic conditions. When the repo rate falls, borrowing becomes cheaper for banks, businesses, and consumers. This decline in interest rates stimulates growth in credit and injects liquidity into the financial system. Businesses show increased interest in borrowing to expand their capacity, while consumers experience an increase in spending. This economic activity acceleration results in better prospects for corporate earnings. Equity markets consequently price in the anticipated growth in the future, causing a surge in stock prices. Because PE is derived from dividing stock prices by earnings, an optimistic view tends to drive prices higher before earnings can keep up in the short run, creating higher PE ratios. Understanding the Investment Implication A declining repo rate environment typically signifies the central bank’s intention to encourage economic growth, which is generally favorable for equities. Investors who foresee such a policy shift can position their portfolios accordingly by allocating more to growth-oriented sectors such as consumer discretionary, banking, infrastructure, and real estate, all of which tend to benefit from increased borrowing and spending. Conversely, an increase in repo rate signals tighter monetary conditions. This raises the cost of capital, reduces consumption and investment, and usually slows down economic activity. As a result, this leads to reduced corporate earnings expectation, causing stock prices to stagnate or fall, and compressed PE ratios. During such periods, investors might prefer to diversify into fixed income instruments or shift toward defensive sectors like FMCG, pharmaceuticals, and utilities. Source: PIB & NSE (Data as on 31st March 2025) Using the PE-Repo Correlation in Real-World In the framework of broader economic policy, the inverse correlation between the Nifty 50 PE ratio and the RBI repo rate offers a valuable insight into market sentiment and valuation. For instance: If the current Nifty PE is below its historical average, and the repo rate is anticipated to be cut, this could indicate a favorable entry point – as markets might soon re-rate upward in anticipation of better earnings and growth. However, it’s important not to rely solely on this relationship. Various other factors like global macro conditions, geopolitical events, and earnings surprises can also influence PE ratios. Investors should use this correlation along with earnings forecasts, sectoral trends, and risk assessment as one of the analytical tools in their decision-making toolkit. Conclusion While no single indicator can guarantee the success of investment, the inverse correlation between the Nifty 50 PE ratio and the RBI repo rate is a powerful macroeconomic signal. Investors can better time their entry and exit points, align their portfolios with prevailing trends, and ultimately make more informed and strategic investment decisions by understanding how monetary policy influences market valuations. DISCLAIMER: This report/presentation is intended for the personal and private use of the recipient and is for private circulation only. It is not to be published, reproduced, distributed, or disclosed, whether wholly or in part, to any other person or entity without prior written consent. The report/presentation has been prepared by Privus Advisors (Firm) based on the information available in public domain & other external sources which are beyond Privus’ control and may also include the Firm’s personal views. Though the recipient recognizes such information to be generally reliable, the recipient acknowledges that inaccuracies may occur & that the Firm does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. Neither does the information nor any opinion expressed constitute a legal opinion or an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial or other products / services or securities or any kind of derivatives related to such securities. Any information contained herein relating to taxation is based on the information available in the public domain that may be subject to change. Investors/Clients should refer to relevant foreign exchange regulations / taxation / financial advice as applicable in India and/or abroad about the appropriateness and relevance / impact of the views or suggestions expressed herein, related to any Investment/Estate Planning / Succession Planning. All investments are subject to market risks, read all related documents carefully before investing. The Firm is registered with SEBI as a non-individual RIA bearing Reg. No. INA000019752 & BSEASL membership No. 2230. Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL and certification of National Institute of Securities Markets (NISM) in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
The Great Investment Debate
Insights The Great Investment Debate Passive vs. Active – Which Path is Right for You? Date: May 2025 In the realm of investing, a fundamental choice often confronts both novice and seasoned participants: should you opt for a passive approach or an active one? Both strategies have their merits, proponents, and drawbacks, making the decision a crucial one that can significantly impact your long-term financial outcomes. At their heart, passive and active investing represent contrasting philosophies regarding market efficiency and the ability to outperform. Let’s delve into the core differences and help you navigate this pivotal investment decision. Passive Investing: Embracing the Market’s Wisdom Passive investing operates on the belief that the market, as a whole, is largely efficient. This means that current stock prices already reflect all available information, making it exceedingly difficult to consistently “beat the market.” Therefore, the goal of a passive investor is not to outperform but rather to match the market’s returns. This is typically achieved by investing in broad market index funds or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track a specific benchmark, such as the S&P 500 or the NIFTY 50. Passive investing has gained significant traction over the years due to its low costs, reduced emotional decision-making, simplicity and efficiency.Active Investing: The Pursuit of Outperformance Active investing, on the other hand, involves a more hands-on approach with the aim of outperforming the market’s average returns. Active fund managers employ various strategies, including in-depth research, market analysis, and stock selection, to identify undervalued securities or capitalize on market inefficiencies. Despite the compelling arguments for passive investing, active management still holds appeal for many due to its potential to outperform the market, downside protection in a falling market and pursuit of ‘active’ returns which can significantly enhance portfolio performance. To understand this better, we analysed rolling returns of actively managed mutual funds across 3 main categories based on market cap – Large, Mid & Small cap with their appropriate benchmarks. Since NSE & BSE have their own indices, we chose the one performing better to evaluate active returns (excess over benchmark). These returns are calculated in 2 buckets – one since 2013 when direct plans were introduced and second since 2017 when SEBI re-categorised mutual funds. Also, for each of these buckets we only considered schemes which have been active before the date and have run the whole course. Large Cap Funds (Benchmark BSE 100 TRI) As seen in the chart above, the ability of Large Cap Funds to provide active returns has reduced post categorisation/rationalisation of mutual funds. Over 3 year holding period, the number of schemes providing active returns fell from 54% to 32% and schemes with a negative active return increased from 46% to 68%. None of the schemes have been able to achieve more than 3% active returns. A similar trend can be seen in the 1 & 5 year holding period as well. Mid Cap Funds (Benchmark: NSE Midcap 150 TRI) Mid cap schemes too display a decreasing trend in active returns over benchmark as we move from 2013 to 2017 but only on a 1-year holding period basis; over 3 and 5 year returns we not only see more funds outperforming the benchmark but also achieving active returns of more than 3%. Specifically for 5 year rolling returns, funds outperforming the benchmark rise significantly from 21% to 50%. Small Cap Funds (Benchmark: NSE Nifty Small cap 250 TRI) Small caps schemes however change the narrative completely. Not only is the number of schemes providing active returns between 0-3% higher than large & mid cap but also schemes providing returns over 3% is significantly higher. A staggering 57% of small cap schemes have achieved excess returns over 3% since 2017 on a 5-year rolling return basis. Therefore, small cap schemes can definitely benefit investors with higher risk appetites. CONCLUSION Active funds can add value, but their success largely depends on the market segment. The Passive vs Active debate is likely to continue. Both approaches have their own strengths and weaknesses. For many investors with a long-term perspective that desire simplicity and low costs, passive investing offers a robust and historically proven path to wealth accumulation. However, active management can play a role for those seeking specific outcomes or possessing the expertise to potentially outperform the market. Understanding the nuances of both passive and active investing empowers you to make informed choices and embark on a successful investment journey. The “best” approach isn’t universal and often depends on individual circumstances, financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment knowledge. DISCLAIMER: This report/presentation is intended for the personal and private use of the recipient and is for private circulation only. It is not to be published, reproduced, distributed, or disclosed, whether wholly or in part, to any other person or entity without prior written consent. The report/presentation has been prepared by Privus Advisors (Firm) based on the information available in public domain & other external sources which are beyond Privus’ control and may also include the Firm’s personal views. Though the recipient recognizes such information to be generally reliable, the recipient acknowledges that inaccuracies may occur & that the Firm does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. Neither does the information nor any opinion expressed constitute a legal opinion or an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any financial or other products / services or securities or any kind of derivatives related to such securities. Any information contained herein relating to taxation is based on the information available in the public domain that may be subject to change. Investors/Clients should refer to relevant foreign exchange regulations / taxation / financial advice as applicable in India and/or abroad about the appropriateness and relevance / impact of the views or suggestions expressed herein, related to any Investment/Estate Planning / Succession Planning. All investments are subject to market risks, read all related documents carefully before investing. The Firm is registered with SEBI as a non-individual RIA bearing